Technical Analysis Explained Page 25
FIGURE 16.20 Bearish Shooting Star
FIGURE 16.21 Bullish Shooting Star (Inverted Hammer)
CHART 16.6 Oracle Corp
Upside Gap Two Crows (Narabi Kuro)
This bearish formation (Figure 16.22) consists of a long white line followed by two black lines. The first black line gaps to the upside. The third day often closes the gap, but because it is a black line where the close is below the open, its implication is bearish.
FIGURE 16.22 Upside Gap Two Crows
Three Black Crows (Sanba Garasu)
The three black crows pattern (Figure 16.23) consists of three declining black candlesticks, which form after an advance and indicate lower prices. Each candlestick should close at or near its session low. You can see that none of them have a lower wick and each of the three real bodies opens within the range or right at the bottom of the previous session’s real body. A good example is featured in Chart 16.7 for Aseer Trading, Tourism and Manufacturing, a Middle Eastern stock. The first crow was a kind of shooting star, which in itself suggested that buyers had spent all their investment funds.
FIGURE 16.23 Three Black Crows
CHART 16.7 Aseer Trading Tourism and Manufacturing
Tweezer Tops and Bottoms (Kenuki)
If you hold a tweezer upside down, you will see that the two points are at identical levels (Figure 16.24). The same is true of a tweezer top, which consists of two candlesticks, for which the high of the day is identical. Actually, it’s possible for a tweezer to consist of more than 2 days with an identical top. Make no mistake about it—we are talking about the high, which can be a shadow or real-body close or open. This pattern is short-term bearish because the first day’s high acts as resistance, so when the second day is unable to punch through the horizontal line (which marks the area of the top), it indicates a loss of upside momentum. In this example, the second day is also an engulfing pattern, which is an important point, since a tweezer often contains a price pattern as part of its formation.
FIGURE 16.24 Tweezer Top and Bottom
A tweezer bottom occurs when, after a decline, two or more candlesticks make an identical low. This again indicates a loss of downside momentum since the price finds support in the area of the low. In this figure, we see a tweezer literally hammered out because the second low to touch the horizontal line is a part of a hammer candlestick.
One factor that will increase the significance of a tweezer is the nature of the pattern being formed. For example, if the second day of a tweezer top is a hanging man, we would have two pieces of evidence that the trend may be about to reverse: the tweezer and the hanging man. If the top of a tweezer temporarily pushes through resistance, such as a meaningful trendline, this would emphasize the significance since it would indicate exhaustion. The same would apply to the temporary violation of a support trendline. You can see an example of a tweezer top in Chart 16.6. Note how the tweezer resistance later on proved to be a barrier to a subsequent advance. That same chart also shows an example of a piercing white line, or is it a bullish engulfing pattern? It really does not matter what we call it because this is a bullish formation, and that’s all that matters!
Counterattack or Meeting Lines (Deai Sen/Gyakushu Sen)
A bullish counterattack line (Figure 16.25) develops when, after a decline, a black candlestick is followed by a white candlestick and both close, or “meet,” at the same level. This is why this 2-day pattern is sometimes referred to as a meeting line. The first day is usually a long black candlestick. The second day opens sharply lower, leading most traders to believe prices will continue to give way. However, by the end of the day, the price has regained everything lost (a counterattack by the buyers) and closes unchanged. The meeting line, therefore, indicates that the downside momentum has probably dissipated and a reversal in trend is likely.
FIGURE 16.25 Bullish Counterattack Line (Meeting Line)
A bearish counterattack, or meeting line (Figure 16.26), is formed when, after an advance, a white candlestick is followed by a black candlestick and both close at the same level. The psychology behind this one is fairly evident. The sharply higher opening on the second day has the bulls in a euphoric mood since these new gains come on top of an already sharp rally. However, euphoria turns to disappointment as the price unexpectedly returns to the unchanged level.
FIGURE 16.26 Bearish Counterattack Line (Meeting Line)
More specific rules for identifying these patterns are as follows:
1. The first day is colored in the direction of the prevailing trend, and the second day forms in the opposite color (white/black for tops and black/white for bottoms).
2. Both real bodies extend the prevailing trend and are long.
3. The closes are identical.
These patterns do not appear that often on the charts, but when they do, the sharp contrast between two long real bodies of differing colors touching each other after a prolonged trend should not be underestimated.
Tower Tops and Bottoms
A tower top consists of a rally cumulating in a long white candlestick. This is then followed by a trading range in which the price gradually works its way higher and then lower in a kind of reverse-saucer format, as in Figure 16.27.
FIGURE 16.27 Tower Top
The pattern is completed with a long black day that opens roughly where the long white day closed (the two pillars of the “tower”). The tower bottom is exactly the opposite, as shown in Figure 16.28. Ideally, the two pillars of the towers form at the same level, though this is not a prerequisite.
FIGURE 16.28 Tower Bottom
Harami Lines (Yose)
Chapter 6 offered the idea that trendline violations are followed by either a reversal or a temporary consolidation. The harami is similar to the consolidation trendline break in that it indicates a loss of momentum. The main difference is that harami are of much shorter duration and consist of 2 days’ price action. The harami forms a real body that is sufficiently small so that it is engulfed by the prior day’s long real body. If it is also a doji, it is called a “harami cross.” These patterns often warn of an impending trend change, especially if they follow a series of strong white or black candlesticks. If we imagine a short-term rally where the buyers are in control, the harami indicates a point of balance between both sides, as neither can push prices on a closing or opening basis beyond the limits of the previous candlestick. Sometimes this results in an actual price reversal, and at other times a harami is followed by a consolidation. Figures 16.29 and 16.30 show examples of a harami where it is a reversal pattern. If, after a decline, the second candlestick forms around the lower area of the first, it is expected that a consolidation rather than a reversal will follow and vice versa for a harami that develops after a rally. The color of the second candlestick is immaterial to the outcome; rather, it’s the idea of a balance between buyers and sellers that takes precedence. Chart 16.7 offers a nice example of a bullish harami, where we see a sharp decline culminating in a long, black real body. Finally, there is a very small real body in contrast.
FIGURE 16.29 Bearish Harami
FIGURE 16.30 Bullish Harami
Continuation Formations
Rising and Falling Three Methods
These formations are very similar in concept to a flag in bar charts, except that they take only a few days, not weeks, to develop. The rising method (Figure 16.31) is a bullish pattern and consists of a powerful white line followed by a series of three or four declining small black lines.
FIGURE 16.31 Rising Three Methods
These declining candles should be accompanied by a noticeable contraction in volume, which indicates that a very fine balance is developing between buyers and sellers. The final part of the pattern is a very strong white line that takes the price to a new closing high. If volume data are available, this final day should record a significant increase in activity. The bearish falling three methods (Figure 16.32) is exactly the opposite, except that volume characteristics are of no signific
ance on the last day.
FIGURE 16.32 Falling Three Methods
Windows (Ku)
Japanese chartists refer to gaps as “windows” (Figures 16.33 and 16.34). Whereas gaps are said to be “filled” in traditional bar charts, windows are “closed” in candlestick charts. Windows, therefore, have the same technical implications as gaps. Chart 16.4 shows examples of where the opening and closing levels of windows acted as support and resistance for subsequent price action.
FIGURE 16.33 Windows
FIGURE 16.34 Upside Gap Tasuki
Upside and Downside Gaps (Tasuki)
A tasuki gap (Figure 16.34) occurs after an advance. The requirement is an upside white-line gap (window) followed by a black line that does not close it. This type of pattern is usually followed by higher prices. However, if the gap is filled, the formation deteriorates into an upside gap with one crow and, therefore, loses its bullish portent. The downside gap is exactly the opposite and is featured in Figure 16.35.
FIGURE 16.35 Downside Gap Tasuki
Candlestick Charts and Western Techniques
There is a tendency among many technicians to look at candlesticks in isolation. My preference, remembering the weight-of-the-evidence approach discussed earlier, is to combine selected Western charting techniques with candlesticks. This involves, among other things, the inclusion of price patterns, trendlines, and oscillators into the analysis.
Chart 16.8 for instance, shows a head-and-shoulders top for Microsoft that was completed in November 2000. Note that the sell-off during the right shoulder was an identical three-crow pattern. Later on, we see a double bottom. The rally from the second low consisted of a bullish belt hold, which in itself indicated that prices were headed higher. This bottom was also associated with a reverse head and shoulders in the relative strength indicator (RSI). Finally, the head-and-shoulders top in the RSI was confirmed with a harami.
CHART 16.8 Microsoft, 2000–2001
One important question concerns where to draw the trendlines. Should they touch the wicks, real bodies, or a combination of both? The answer lies in our usual commonsense approach. Since the opening and closing prices are generally more important than the high and low lines that exclusively touch, real bodies will generally be more significant than those only touching the wicks. However, a longer line that has been touched on more occasions that only touches the wicks will probably be more significant than a line that is relatively short and only touches two real bodies.
Candlestick Volume Charts
Candlestick volume charts are the same as regular candlestick charts with one important difference. The width of the real bodies varies with the level of volume during that particular session. The greater the volume, the wider the real body and vice versa. This is shown in Figure 16.36.
FIGURE 16.36 Candle Volume Configurations
It can be a very useful way of presenting the data because the signals from the regular candlesticks are preserved, yet the width of the real bodies offers a quick and simple overview of the volume pattern. Examples of how bullish and bearish volume patterns would show up on candlestick volume charts are shown in Figures 16.37 and 16.38.
FIGURE 16.37 Normal Volume Characteristics
FIGURE 16.38 Bearish Volume Characteristics
Chart 16.9 shows a candlestick volume chart for Walmart, the world’s largest retailer.
CHART 16.9 Walmart, 2000–2001 Candle Volume
Notice how the early November window following the bullish engulfing pattern was closed soon after. However, the very thin candlesticks that were involved in the retracement move indicated a lack of volume, which is precisely the type of thing that is required in a pull-back of this nature. Heavy volume in such a situation would indicate selling pressure, as opposed to the situation here, where prices were clearly falling because of a lack of buying interest.
The previous rally experienced a series of very thin candlesticks, which indicated that prices were rising on lower volume. This is opposite to the norm, where rising prices and volume are healthy. Therefore, the very thin candlesticks warned that the days of the rally were numbered.
The late November–early December rally was associated with wider candlesticks, which was a good sign. However, as we reach the week of the fourth, the candlesticks move sideways but are very thin. This indicated that the balance between buyers and sellers was more evenly matched. The doji on the day of the high also reflects this even balance. This type of characteristic is often followed by a trend reversal, especially if volume picks up on the downside. That’s precisely what happened here as the up trendline is violated and the candlesticks thicken up.
The long, white line that developed at the very end of December looked good at the time since this candlestick was a pretty wide one, indicating heavy volume. However, there was no follow-through on the upside, which indicated that the long, white line was a buying climax. This was confirmed first with the establishment of a harami on the subsequent day and by a long, black candlestick that retraced all of the ground gained by the long, white line.
Chart 16.10 shows an engulfing pattern for the March 2011 top for Broadvision. While there wasn’t a lot of “engulfing” going on, the width of the second bar indicated huge motivation by sellers to get out. Later on, we see another wide bar, which succeeded in violating support, as evidenced by the penetration of the horizontal trendline. The downtrend was resumed in late April by another long, wide, black real body.
CHART 16.10 Broadvision
Summary
1. Candlestick charts can be constructed only from data that include opening prices, and therefore, the technique is not one that can be applied to all markets.
2. Candlestick charts provide a unique visual effect that emphasizes certain market characteristics not easily identifiable from bar or closing charts.
3. Candlestick patterns form as reversal and continuation types.
4. Candlesticks can be used in conjunction with Western techniques in a weight-of-the-evidence approach.
5. Adding volume to the formula often brings out actionable technical characteristics that are not always apparent when volume and price are plotted separately.
1Steve Nison, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, New York: New York Institute of Finance, 1991.
17 POINT AND FIGURE CHARTING
Point and Figure Charts versus Bar Charts
Point and figure charts differ from bar charts in two important ways. First, bar charts are plotted at specific time intervals regardless of whether there is any change in price. A new plot on a point and figure chart, on the other hand, is made only when the price changes by a given amount. Point and figure charts are only concerned with measuring price, whereas bar charts measure both price (on the vertical axis) and time (on the horizontal axis).
The second major difference is that bar charts record every change in price for the period they are measuring, but point and figure charts ignore all price movements that are smaller than a specified amount. For example, if a box is set at price movements of 5 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), only price changes in excess of 5 points will be recorded, and smaller fluctuations will not appear.
Construction of Point and Figure Charts
Point and figure charts are constructed using combinations of X’s and O’s, known as boxes. The X shows that prices are moving up, the O that they are moving down. Once the amount of historical data to be plotted has been established, there are two important decisions to be made before a chart can be constructed.
First, the size of each box must be determined. For individual stocks, it is common practice to use a l-point unit or box for issues trading above $20 and a ½-point unit for lower-priced stocks. However, for very long term charts or for averages consisting of much higher numbers, it is more convenient to use 5-, 10-, or even 20-point boxes. As the box size is decreased, the detail of price movement graphically displayed is increased, and vice versa. In following the price action of a s
tock or market over many years, it is more convenient to use a relatively large box since small boxes will make the chart unduly large and unmanageable. Often, it is a good idea to maintain two or three different versions, just as daily, weekly, and monthly bar charts may be plotted.
The second decision is whether to use a regular point and figure formula or to use a reversal chart (which should not be confused with a reversal pattern). The straight point and figure chart is plotted just as the data are recorded. If the price moves from 64 to 65, five X’s will be plotted on a 20¢-point chart, as in Fig. 17.1(a). If the price reverses from 67 to 66, five O’s will be posted. Reversal charts, on the other hand, follow a predetermined rule: A new series of X’s or 0’s cannot begin until prices have moved by a specified amount in the opposite direction to the prevailing trend. The use of the reversal technique therefore helps to reduce misleading or whipsaw signals and to greatly compress the size of the chart so that more data can be plotted. Figure 17.1(b) shows the same data plotted as a line chart.
FIGURE 17.1a 20¢-Point Chart
FIGURE 17.1b Closing Prices (Line Chart)
The construction of ½-point, 5-point, or 10-point charts, or charts by any other measure, is identical to the previous method except that a new box can be posted only when the price has moved by the degree specified, that is, by ½ point, 5 points, or 10 points, respectively. Since only price is recorded, it could take several days or even weeks before a new box is plotted. Hence, a common practice is to record dates either at the foot of the chart or in the boxes at the appropriate points. A combination of both date locations is used for longer-term charts. For example, the year is recorded at the bottom of the chart against the column that the first posting of that year was made for, and the beginning of each month is recorded in a box using the number of the month, 1 for January, 2 for February, and so on.